Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
In a new study, Ma et al.  found that the concentration of ice in the Arctic Sea is crucial for predicting the strong and prolonged formation of the Urals blockade. The authors use the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method to study the effect of Arctic ice on the prediction of Ural blockade.
Numerical results show that the concentration of sea ice in the Greenland, Barents and Okhotsk Seas is crucial for a 4-five-fifth forecast of these Ural blockades. Further diagnostics show that the shocks of sea ice in these areas first affect the local temperature through the process of diabetic heating, and then affect the temperature in the Ural sector mainly through advection and convection processes. Moreover, zonal winds in the Urals sector are regulated by the thermal balance of the wind, thus influencing the formation of the Ural blockage.
Local characteristics of the concentration of ice in the Arctic Sea indicate that the Greenland, Barents and Okhotsk Seas may be sensitive areas against a 4-five-day forecast of strong and prolonged Ural blockade formations. These results provide a scientific basis for future target observations and ensemble subseasonal forecast.
Quote: Ma, X., Mu, M., Dai, G., Han, Z., Li, S., and Jiang Z. (2022). Influence of Arctic sea ice concentration on forecasting over an extended range of strong and prolonged Ural blockade events in winter. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres127, e2021JD036282. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036282
-Imin Liu, Deputy Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres